U.S.-bound shipments in August set a new high, reports Panjiva

By Jeff Berman, Group News Editor
October 03, 2014

Data issued this week by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers, showed that global trade growth continues to be in a good place, heading into the home stretch of 2014.

U.S.-bound waterborne shipments in August––at 1,274,234––were up 4 percent annually and 1 percent higher than July, the previous high for 2014 at 1,258,142. Panjiva added that the total number of shipments for the month of August represents the highest level of shipments––or imports––since the company began tracking this data. And the company said that such a strong showing is a good sign for the holiday shopping season, with optimistic retailers aggressively stocking their shelves in anticipation of strong holiday sales.

Through the first eight months of 2014, Panjiva said that shipments are up 6 percent at 9,323,042.

Panjiva CEO Josh Green described this most recent batch of data as great news, with a strong August following a strong July, especially when compared to 2013 when July was weak and August was just about even with it.

“Traditionally, we have seen that July is the peak, and when we saw a strong July this year it was an indicator that retailers were feeling bullish about the holiday season,” he said. “And seeing a strong August on the heels of a strong July confirms that bullish sentiment regarding the holiday season.”

While the outlook for the holiday season is bright based on Panjiva’s data, Green said there still remains some underlying concerns about retailers being stuck with extra inventory after the holiday season should things not materialize on the holiday spending front as presently expected.

The reason for this, he explained, is that retailers are being so bullish that they do get left with too much inventory if consumers don’t buy as much as expected.

“The key numbers to watch here are things like consumer sentiment and jobs, as these numbers will tell us whether the holiday season will be as strong as the retailers are betting it will be,” he said. “What we are seeing now is a story that has been told all year, with a theme of strong and healthy levels of trade, so the best bet is that we will see that continue through the end of this year until we get a new and definitive read on where consumers are in regards to the holiday season.”

Things that could serve as headwinds with the holiday season approaching are what Green called “hot spots” like ISIS in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, neither of which he said have had an impact on global trade activity to date.

Should a new situation or a dramatic extension of severity in one of the existing global hot spots occur, that could slow things down, he said. And another wildcard to add to the mix, he said, is the Ebola virus, with the recent news that a person with Ebola has entered the United States. Should more people contract it, he said that could potentially impact global trade.

“Even with this possible obstacles, things are in a very good place right now,” he said.

Looking ahead, Green said it would not be surprising to see September numbers down from August, as is the case seasonally, coupled with August as the peak month of the year.