Freight Bottlenecks Are Coming to U.S.: Special Report

Posted: Jun 23, 2015 11:34 AM | Last Updated: Jun 23, 2015 11:44 AM

WASHINGTON, D.C. – A report released Tuesday provides a thorough snapshot of not just overall business conditions in the U.S. logistics industry but also a look at overall economic conditions and other issues affecting the trucking industry. And the report suggests that although freight volumes will keep growing, capacity won't, so you better expect some pretty tight conditions in the near future.

The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals released its 26th Annual State of Logistics Report, sponsored by Penske Logistics, at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

The report, authored and presented by transportation consultant Rosalyn Wilson of consultancy firm Parsons, has tracked and measured all costs associated with moving freight through the U.S. supply chain since 1988.

The report reveals total U.S. business logistics costs rose to $1.45 trillion in 2014, a 3.1 percent increase from the previous year. However, the growth rate for logistics costs was lower than the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), resulting in a slight decline in logistics as a percent of GDP from 8.4 percent to 8.3 percent.

It also shows the U.S. transportation sector grew by 3.6 percent in 2014 due to stronger shipment volumes rather than higher rates as the U.S. economy was on solid ground.

U.S. GDP grew faster than 3.5 percent in four of the last six quarters. However, the second estimate of GDP growth for Q1 2015 showed a 0.7-percent contraction.

This contraction is indicative of the rising U.S. Dollar Index as prolonged dollar strength leads to lower global sales and a downturn in exports, according to the report. Conversely, the costs of foreign products in the U.S. have been driven down which should, in turn, boost imports.

New job creation was consistent, real net income and household net worth inched up, inflation was low-to-moderate and gas prices tumbled, providing consumers with additional buying power.

As consumer spending increased, freight levels climbed as retailers replenished inventories. Consumers had been the missing component in the recovery from the Great Recession, but in 2014 they began returning to the marketplace.

The truck driver shortage remains a key concern for the logistics sector with the American Trucking Associations estimating the current shortage ranges from 35,000 to 40,000 drivers. A key indicator of this was the driver turnover rate, which was more than 95 percent on an annualized basis.

The first quarter of 2014 saw 390 U.S. trucking companies, each averaging 27 vehicles, go into bankruptcy. Smaller trucking companies are also being forced out of the business due to cost-related pressures stemming from new federal safety regulations. Although these companies represent a small part of the industry compared to the nation’s largest carriers, they are often an important source of competition, according to the report.

Freight volume is expected to continue growing at a moderate rate this year, but as seen in 2014, capacity is not expected to keep pace. In fact, the report said impact of the sustained growth in freight volume on capacity and cost is one of the most important trends to monitor in 2015. It is likely that most of the freight logistics industry’s problems over the next three years will relate to capacity issues.  For 2015 specifically, industry experts expect bottlenecks across almost every mode of transport.

In the final quarter of 2014, congestion at the Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach reached crisis levels, with delays reaching three weeks in October. A glut of supply was, and remains, the chief culprit. The economics of supply and demand came back into play as chassis, trucks and drivers became scarce commodities; however, rates did not rise.