Every year, Americans complain about the holiday shopping season starting earlier and earlier. But here we are again in Thanksgiving week, and retailers are all about getting you into their stores now.
“It’s showtime. The holiday season casts the scene. We’ll see what retailers have made the most progress in the past year when customers walk with their feet and clicks,” said Christina Boni, Moody’s vice president.
Dallas-Fort Worth shoppers should be easy pickings this year and are among the 69 percent of Americans — an estimated 164 million people — who said they plan to shop during the long Thanksgiving weekend including Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation.
Area residents said they plan to spend more than last year and well above the national average, according to a Deloitte survey.
Local residents surveyed said they expect to spend $1,699 on gifts, entertaining, airline tickets and non-gifts of clothing, home decorations and furnishings related to the winter holidays.
That compares with $1,228 nationally and makes Dallas shoppers standouts in this year’s survey results, said Ed Tauriac, partner with Deloitte in the Dallas office.
It’s the economy
Both the national and local economies are being driven by low unemployment rates and high consumer confidence.
Sightings on the horizon of the “state bird” (construction cranes), Tauriac said, are just one visible sign of a growing economy. D-FW’s unemployment rate stands at 3.4 percent vs. 4 percent a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And that’s below the U.S. rate of 4.1 percent.
More D-FW residents said they’re confident about their household finances, according to the survey, with 83 percent saying they felt better or the same as a year ago. That’s up from 78 percent in 2016.
What reasons did local shoppers give that would make them alter their plans? Saving more or paying down debt were mentioned more often than a hit to the wallet such as a job loss or major repair.
For the first time, D-FW shoppers said they plan to spend more online (50 percent) than in stores (45 percent). Retailers with roots in physical stores have spent money building operations and mobile apps that link their stores to shoppers from anywhere, to match the higher expectations Amazon.com has set.
Free shipping rules
After all these years and investments in speed of delivery and cool apps on your smartphones, shipping costs are still top of mind for online shoppers. D-FW residents in the Deloitte survey who said they will shop online call out free shipping (66 percent) as a reason. Likewise, people who say they will shop in stores (60 percent) say it’s because they want to avoid shipping costs.
Adobe Analytics forecasts online sales this holiday season will top $100 billion for the first time, up 13.8 percent to $107.4 billion. The record-breaking season will be “built on the strength of the big players,” said Mickey Mericle, Adobe vice president. Specifically, she said, it’s the biggest retailers with wide selections, easy shopping experiences and free shipping who will drive online holiday growth.
Many of the big discounts in holiday circulars are also offered online and before Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. J.C. Penney and Kohl’s have had Black Friday deals available online since Sunday and Monday. Wal-Mart plans to make its Cyber Monday deals available Sunday at midnight.
The national big box discount chains and department stores aren’t giving up on their stores or the not-so-controversial idea anymore of shopping on Thanksgiving Day. Doors open Thursday at 7 a.m. this year at Big Lots and Dollar General, followed at 8 a.m. by Bass Pro Shops and Cabela’s. Afternoon staggered openings begin with J.C. Penney at 2 p.m. and Belk and Old Navy at 4. Then 5 and 6 p.m. have the longest lists including Wal-Mart and Target.
Most experts who forecast the holiday think it’s going to be decent and similar to last year with one outlier that’s expecting a really good Christmas. PwC forecasts sales will be up as much as 6 percent.
Deloitte forecasts combined November-December sales will increase 4 to 4.5 percent, with e-commerce grabbing market share based on a forecast for online sales to increase 18 percent to 21 percent.
The National Retail Federation forecasts a 3.6 to 4 percent increase in sales to $679 billion, excluding autos, gasoline and restaurants. Last year, sales increased 3.6 percent. There’s one more day between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, and with Christmas on a Monday instead of Sunday, people will have one extra weekend day to shop.
“Everything is lining up to be a robust season for the consumer,” said Kalypso analyst Al Meyers. The retailers who will find success over the next few weeks are “the ones who have the right value, unique and innovative products and break through the sea of sameness.”
Some of the best deals come with in-store-only, limited quantities and no rain checks.
What’s hot
Besides Apple iPhone X deals at Best Buy, Target and Wal-Mart, there are a few toys new to the market that probably aren’t already in your child’s toy box.
Fingerlings, interactive finger puppets, are already hard to find. The mysterious L.O.L Surprise, which is mostly listed as being temporarily out of stock, introduces an “unboxing experience” where a $69.99 version unpacks 50 surprises — all individually wrapped and buried in layers. It takes hours to peel through the 13-inch dome. It comes in smaller sizes too, and it’s made by California-based toy maker MGA Entertainment, which in past holiday seasons has had hits such as Bratz dolls and makes respected longtime brands of Little Tikes and Zapf Creation dolls.
Every holiday season has its kitchen gadget. Who can forget the chocolate fountain from years ago and the more recent veggie spiralizer? This year, it’s the Instant Pot. It comes in different sizes and a 5-quart one is featured in Wal-Mart’s Black Friday ad for $49 as a “special buy.” It’s a multi-function pressure cooker that can be programmed to cook rice, steam vegetables and brown meat.
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