Will Technology Make Truck Drivers Obsolete In 10 Years?

So far, almost all of the attention on self-driving technology has been related to cars. But this week, Daimler Trucks North America (DTNA) shifted the focus to big rigs by introducing the first self-driving semi in the U.S.

The German-owned, U.S.-based company announced that DTNA had received a license from the state of Nevada to test the vehicle on public roads and debuted its Freightliner Inspiration Truck during a press blitz this week that includedtaking Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval for a joyride and having the truck drive itself across the Hoover Dam.

Freightliner unveils its Inspiration self-driving truck during an event at the Hoover Dam Tuesday, May 5, 2015, near Boulder City, Nev. (AP Photo/John Locher)

While self-driving passenger cars have enormous ability to reduce accidents, traffic and emissions while increasing fuel economy, autonomous trucks make sense for the same reasons but add a commercial element that can significantly boost the bottom line for businesses. According to Daimler, tucks transported about 70 percent of all freight in the U.S. in 2012, and by 2050 the global trucking industry is expected to triple – but also increasing congestion, pollution and potential accidents.

Daimler board member and head of the company’s Trucks and Buses division, Wolfgang Bernhard, said at the press event that 90 percent of crashes caused by driver distraction and drowsiness can be prevented by autonomous technology. Daimler officials also pointed out that if truck drivers are relieved from paying attention to the road 100 percent of the time, they can be more productive behind the wheel, handling logistic and maintenance issues that they would otherwise have to stop to deal with – or that would create a dangerous distraction while driving. And they suggested that the combination of safer, faster and more economical truck transport through autonomous technology could lower the overall cost of goods.

Daimler also acknowledged that it could be at least 10 years before self-driving 18-wheelers are ready for the road, although the delay could have more to do with policy issues rather than technology lag. The perception of robot big rigs roaming the roads could face resistance from policymakers as well as the public. For example, the company mentioned how simply replacing side physical mirrors with cameras and monitors, which could reduce drag and increase fuel efficiency by 1.5 percent, has been a regulatory uphill battle.

But it’s important to note that the Freightliner Inspiration Truck DTNA unveiled in Las Vegas is far from fully autonomous, and the same technology used on the rig is already available on its sibling Mercedes-Benz C-Class. CalledSteering Assist and part of Mercedes-Benz’s Distronic Plus adaptive cruise control system, it uses a radar sensor to maintain the distance to a vehicle ahead and a camera to detect markers on the road to keep the car in its lane.

The second-largest cost factor after fuel, the driver – Berger says – will progressively disappear in the background. At first, it will still be present, but as a manager, a supervisor, ready to take control of the vehicle when needed, and, in the meantime, in the idyllic future imagined by Daimler, happily engaged in “social activities”, like “make arrangements to meet for a break, make appointments, obtain information about the traffic situation or loading and unloading points, or attend to private matters.”

Alas, the fun won’t last. It’s true that today there are still many technical and legal hurdles that must be overcome before the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles is possible. From the technical point of view, the main need for innovation is on the software side.

The processing of sensor inputs will have to be so effective that not only the vehicle will be able to understand the immediate environment, adapt to unknown situations, respect street laws, know its exact location in the traffic and take into account its own movement to create the optimal route.

The report estimates that 300 GB of data will have to be processed to achieve this. For real self-driving, the truck will also have to be integrate a fail-operational architecture that protects against technical failure and covers system malfunction. In addition, the per-unit costs need to be further reduced.

Legal hurdles as well prevent fully autonomous driving (although in some States driverless cars are already allowed) and a new legal framework must be established before the scenario envisioned by Roland Berger becomes possible. One key question is, once you remove the driver, who will have the responsibility in the event of an accident.

However, as another report by the Conference Board of Canada maintains, when it comes to automated vehicles (AVs), it’s not a matter of “if”, but of “when”. And, as they roll out, AVs will be disruptive to both the public and private sector.

It’s not hard to forecast growing social tensions, as workers fear to loose their job or struggle to adapt to new requirements, which will be mostly managerial in nature rather than operational. The question is, therefore, whether politicians and institutions in general will be able to steer the change in a positive direction.

The Roland Berger report might have perhaps overestimated the pace of change: it’s hard to take into account all variables. But it could have underestimated it as well: after all, when it comes to technology, disruption is usually quicker than expected. Anyway, we might as well start to prepare. A decade is just a blink away.