In 2012, the US government put on its futurist hat and published a report entitled
“Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.”
It’s full of both grim predictions and hopeful insights about the world that humans will inhabit within the next two decades.
One section outlines four mega-trends that are poised to create the
greatest impact in the years to come in society, healthcare, government,
and resources.
Here’s what we can expect.
Individual empowerment
Over the next 15 to 20 years, continued giving from groups like the
World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will
lift millions of people out of poverty, the report found, to the extent
that the majority of the world’s population will no longer be
impoverished.
This new wealth will produce millions more empowered individuals that
will have the means to add to local and national economies.
The report hedged slightly, however, because more empowered people
will also have greater access to lethal weapons and networks, which is
“a capability formerly the monopoly of states.”
Diffusion of power
Developing countries in Asia will become more prominent world powers compared to North American and European nations.
“China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that
of the United States a few years before 2030,” the report explained. “In
a tectonic shift, the health of the global economy increasingly will be
linked to how well the developing world does — more so than the
traditional West.”
In other words, having the most money or people won’t necessarily
keep a country powerful if others are more adept at staying connected to
data and resources.
Demographic patterns
A combination of widespread aging, falling fertility, and urbanization will lead to a dramatically different world in 2030.
With an expected 8.3 billion people, human civilization will be both
older and much more focused on city life. Our infrastructure may
improve, but our level of innovation and output will slow down without
younger workers.
“Aging countries will face an uphill battle in maintaining their living standards,” the report stated.
It’s entirely possible, however, that within the next several
decades, humanity will generate more urban construction than it has in
the rest of its history.
Growing demand for food, water, and energy
A growing middle class and gains in empowerment will lead the demand
for food to rise by 35%, water by 40%, and energy by 50%, government
research suggested.
Regions with extreme weather patterns — like rain-soaked Singapore or
muggy Mumbai — will get more extreme due to the effects of climate
change. Dry areas such as northern Africa and the US Southwest will feel
the effects of diminished precipitation especially hard.
We will still have enough resources to avoid energy scarcity by 2030;
however, whether those resources include fracking or renewable forms
like solar and wind is yet to be seen.
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